[ { "episode_id": "HEB-01", "year": "2015", "geography": "Hebron, West Bank", "actor_or_sponsor": "World Bank and donor consortium", "counterparty": "Palestinian Water Authority / Hebron Municipality", "mechanism": "Project financing", "observed_evidence": "Hebron wastewater project approved; project financing and implementing agencies stated in 2024 completion report", "implementation_status": "Implemented financing; construction unfinished at 2023 project close", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not show donors originated all Palestinian wastewater priorities", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-02", "year": "2020", "geography": "Al-Hileh, Hebron", "actor_or_sponsor": "Palestinian Water Authority / Hebron Municipality / governorate", "counterparty": "Al-Hileh community representatives", "mechanism": "Negotiated local consent", "observed_evidence": "World Bank report records 7 October 2020 understanding and steering committee", "implementation_status": "Agreement reported; implementation contested", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not establish community priorities were fully implemented", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-03", "year": "2022", "geography": "Hebron, West Bank", "actor_or_sponsor": "Hebron project donors (unspecified in passage)", "counterparty": "Palestinian Water Authority", "mechanism": "Documented donor correspondence", "observed_evidence": "Two donor letters on slurry preceded January 2022 government technical committee recommendation", "implementation_status": "Reported attempt to influence; recommended measures not significantly implemented at report assessment", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Chronology does not prove letters caused the government response", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "EU-01", "year": "2023", "geography": "West Bank and Gaza", "actor_or_sponsor": "EU / Austria / France / Germany / Netherlands / Spain", "counterparty": "Palestinian Authority", "mechanism": "Incentive-linked investment framework", "observed_evidence": "Official Team Europe announcement conditions second-tranche appraisal on agreed PA reform undertakings", "implementation_status": "Framework publicly announced; actual tranche decision not verified", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot infer reform priorities were externally imposed or tranche withheld", "source_url": "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/palestine-occupied-palestinian-territory-west-bank-and-gaza-strip/team-europe-new-joint-initiative-support-management-palestinian-water-resources_en", "document_tier": "C" }, { "episode_id": "PRO-01", "year": "2021", "geography": "Jordan / Israel / UAE", "actor_or_sponsor": "Jordan / Israel / UAE government signatories", "counterparty": "Proposed regional water-energy exchange", "mechanism": "Intergovernmental declaration of intent", "observed_evidence": "UAE states declaration envisaged 600 MW solar in Jordan and up to 200m cubic metres desalinated water for Jordan", "implementation_status": "Signed declaration; feasibility proposed", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not show infrastructure was built or Palestinian exclusion caused by a particular actor", "source_url": "https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/mediahub/news/2021/11/22/22-11-2021-uae-collaboration", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "PRO-02", "year": "2022", "geography": "Jordan / Israel / UAE", "actor_or_sponsor": "Jordan / Israel / UAE", "counterparty": "Project Prosperity memorandum", "mechanism": "Memorandum and feasibility/implementation planning", "observed_evidence": "Governments sign MoU and describe continuing feasibility studies", "implementation_status": "Signed MoU; not evidence of completed project", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "No commercial award or implemented water delivery established", "source_url": "https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/mediahub/news/2022/11/8/08-11-2022-uae-minister", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "WPS-01", "year": "2025", "geography": "Iraq", "actor_or_sponsor": "Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs / WPS consortium", "counterparty": "Iraqi partners and institutions", "mechanism": "Water security knowledge and policy engagement", "observed_evidence": "Independent WPS evaluation describes Iraq programme models and engagement", "implementation_status": "Programme and engagement verified; formal ministerial uptake unverified", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot infer dashboard directed Iraqi governmental decisions", "source_url": "https://www.government.nl/documents/2025/06/20/evaluation-of-the-water-peace-security-wps-partnership", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "WPS-02", "year": "2025", "geography": "Netherlands / Iraq and other WPS settings", "actor_or_sponsor": "Hague Centre for Strategic Studies", "counterparty": "Defence/security-policy audience", "mechanism": "Water-security policy advocacy", "observed_evidence": "HCSS brief advocates integration of defence and security actors in prevention approaches", "implementation_status": "Policy recommendation published", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Not proof of military use of Iraqi water-security data", "source_url": "https://hcss.nl/report/wps-policy-brief-addressing-water-related-security-challenges-in-fragile-settings-opportunities-and-limitations-for-defence-and-security-actors/", "document_tier": "C" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-04", "year": "2005–2010", "geography": "Wadi As-Samen, Hebron / northern Negev", "actor_or_sponsor": "Bedouin communities; Israeli court; Israel Water Authority", "counterparty": "Palestinian Authority; Israeli regulator", "mechanism": "Court-ordered treatment followed by cross-border charging", "observed_evidence": "World Bank retrospectively reports 2005 court order, Israeli treatment works in 2009–2010, and charges to PA", "implementation_status": "Treatment facilities built and fees reported; court order text not inspected", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Not proof of fee fairness or intent to extract revenues", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-05", "year": "2020", "geography": "Al-Hileh / Hebron / Yatta", "actor_or_sponsor": "Palestinian Water Authority; local authorities; community representatives", "counterparty": "Hebron WWTP contractors and funders", "mechanism": "Locally negotiated agreement for project resumption", "observed_evidence": "WAFA's 7 Oct 2020 report confirms memorandum, locally requested infrastructure promises, Dutch-funded Yatta water network mentioned by PWA", "implementation_status": "Agreement publicly announced; implementation contested", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Full MoU obligations and financing flows not verified without signed instrument", "source_url": "https://www.wafa.ps/pages/details/10518", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-06", "year": "2022", "geography": "Al-Hileh / Hebron", "actor_or_sponsor": "Local community; PWA; Palestinian Finance Ministry and Prime Minister's Office", "counterparty": "WWTP contractor", "mechanism": "Community pressure and renegotiated timetable", "observed_evidence": "Bank reports Aug 2022 work stoppage connected to unfulfilled 14-km conveyor commitments and resumption in September after further promises", "implementation_status": "Actual interruption and resumption retrospectively documented", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Participant views not independently interviewed; no causal inference about all project delays", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-01", "year": "2022", "geography": "Gaza Strip", "actor_or_sponsor": "Office of the Quartet; PWA; COGAT; EU; World Bank", "counterparty": "Gaza Central Desalination Plant implementing agencies", "mechanism": "Multi-party machinery, materials and personnel approval platform", "observed_evidence": "EC action document identifies task-force participants and mandate to process project authorisations", "implementation_status": "Formal arrangement documented; specific approval/refusal outcomes unverified", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot infer which partner exercised veto or directed specific decisions", "source_url": "https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/15226ba2-0137-47c6-b29f-283558d1ebe6_en?filename=C_2022_4166_F1_ANNEX_EN_V2_P1_1882749.PDF", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-02", "year": "2022", "geography": "Gaza Strip", "actor_or_sponsor": "EIB; World Bank; Islamic Development Bank; PWA; EU; Gulf donors", "counterparty": "Gaza Central Desalination Plant and associated works", "mechanism": "Multi-institution donor fund administration", "observed_evidence": "EC action document allocates management of plant, associated-works and Gulf-donor financing to different institutions", "implementation_status": "Formal intended arrangement documented; expenditure audit not obtained", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Not evidence all funders pursued identical foreign policy or received commercial benefits", "source_url": "https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/15226ba2-0137-47c6-b29f-283558d1ebe6_en?filename=C_2022_4166_F1_ANNEX_EN_V2_P1_1882749.PDF", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-03", "year": "2022", "geography": "Palestine donor coordination; Gaza", "actor_or_sponsor": "PWA; Netherlands; EU/member states", "counterparty": "Water and Sanitation Sector Working Group", "mechanism": "Formal coordination and agenda-setting forum", "observed_evidence": "EC action document identifies PWA chair, Netherlands deputy chair and coordinated donor working group", "implementation_status": "Role allocation in official 2022 EU document", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "No evidence that deputy chair overrode PWA's agenda or decisions", "source_url": "https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/15226ba2-0137-47c6-b29f-283558d1ebe6_en?filename=C_2022_4166_F1_ANNEX_EN_V2_P1_1882749.PDF", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-04", "year": "2022", "geography": "Gaza Strip", "actor_or_sponsor": "European Commission / EIB", "counterparty": "PWA / Gaza desalination project", "mechanism": "EU action plan grant and O&M reform incentives", "observed_evidence": "2022 Commission action document proposes €5m NDICI contribution and identifies PEGASE incentive-based reform tranches", "implementation_status": "Official commitment and programme logic documented; actual payments unverified", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot conflate 2022 action with 2023 Team Europe second tranche or assume reform was externally imposed", "source_url": "https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/15226ba2-0137-47c6-b29f-283558d1ebe6_en?filename=C_2022_4166_F1_ANNEX_EN_V2_P1_1882749.PDF", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-05", "year": "2019", "geography": "Gaza Strip", "actor_or_sponsor": "Quartet taskforce; PWA/EIB", "counterparty": "COGAT", "mechanism": "Entry-approval procedure", "observed_evidence": "Agreed Capsule Model: material applications in 60 working days; revisions in 45; bidder lists harmonised by PWA/EIB before COGAT review", "implementation_status": "Formal protocol published; actual application timing unverified", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not establish every material was approved or that time limits were met", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/One%20pager%20on%20progress%20of%20entry%20of%20materials%20%20for%20Brussels%20v4_24Apr2019.pdf", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-06", "year": "2023", "geography": "Gaza Strip", "actor_or_sponsor": "PWA/EU/Quartet; international financiers", "counterparty": "Project contractors; COGAT", "mechanism": "Multiple sources of delay", "observed_evidence": "Quartet reports main GCDP held by procurement and finance; associated works experienced material-entry delays", "implementation_status": "Reported project hold and subsidiary difficulties; interim local PWA alternatives proposed", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot infer one actor caused all delays", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/flash/Office%20of%20the%20Quartet%20Report%20to%20the%20AHLC%20-%20Sep%202023_Final.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "WEST-01", "year": "2023", "geography": "West Bank", "actor_or_sponsor": "Government of Israel; PWA", "counterparty": "47-project PWA water/wastewater package", "mechanism": "Formal infrastructure approvals", "observed_evidence": "Quartet report says Israeli approval held for five of 47 projects at September 2023 checkpoint", "implementation_status": "Time-bounded approval snapshot", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Unapproved does not necessarily equal individually rejected; cannot extrapolate to 2026", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/flash/Office%20of%20the%20Quartet%20Report%20to%20the%20AHLC%20-%20Sep%202023_Final.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "WEST-02", "year": "2023", "geography": "West Bank", "actor_or_sponsor": "IWA", "counterparty": "PWA/JWC pricing subcommittee", "mechanism": "Price decision changed after Palestinian objection", "observed_evidence": "Proposed approximate 10 percent price increase suspended at PWA request; pricing talks began Sep 4", "implementation_status": "Attempted price change plus reported reversal", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Neither final tariff nor relative bargaining strength across all decisions established", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/flash/Office%20of%20the%20Quartet%20Report%20to%20the%20AHLC%20-%20Sep%202023_Final.pdf", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-07", "year": "2023", "geography": "Northern Gaza", "actor_or_sponsor": "German KfW; Palestinian Ministry of Finance", "counterparty": "PWA; local bidders; Israeli customs/clearance", "mechanism": "Dual contractor and import permissions", "observed_evidence": "PWA tender describes KfW approval of contractor and Israeli clearance of imported chemicals", "implementation_status": "Contractual approval requirements in official published tender", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "No award or denial of entry established; official PDF currently indexed but not fetched", "source_url": "https://gs.pmof.ps/cp/plugins/spaw/uploads/files/bids/167-2023.pdf", "document_tier": "A (indexed)" }, { "episode_id": "WEST-03", "year": "2023", "geography": "Hebron/Bethlehem", "actor_or_sponsor": "PWA; Mekorot; IWA", "counterparty": "Local Palestinian water customers", "mechanism": "Disputed supply reductions", "observed_evidence": "PWA claimed 6000 cubic metres/day local reduction; Quartet records IWA technical/aggregate-volume account", "implementation_status": "Competing reported accounts", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not establish cause without meter and repair logs", "source_url": "https://www.wafa.ps/news/2023/7/15/%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A5%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%AE%D9%81%D8%B6-%D9%83%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%87", "document_tier": "B" }, { "episode_id": "ISR-01", "year": "2023", "geography": "Western Galilee Israel", "actor_or_sponsor": "European Investment Bank", "counterparty": "Israeli Ministry of Finance; PPP promoter", "mechanism": "Desalination concession finance", "observed_evidence": "EIB record shows Dec 2023 signature of EUR150m for a 100 MCM/year desalination PPP with 25 year concession", "implementation_status": "Direct investment link documented, motives separate", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot infer same EIB political objectives in Palestinian water projects", "source_url": "https://www.eib.org/en/projects/all/20210765", "document_tier": "A" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-07", "year": "2020-10-07", "geography": "Hebron / Yatta / Al-Hileh", "actor_or_sponsor": "PWA and Palestinian ministries and municipalities", "counterparty": "Affected local community", "mechanism": "Local negotiation and infrastructure commitments", "observed_evidence": "Palestinian WAFA and PWA independently announced an agreement to resume WWTP works, with Wadi As-Samen and Yatta water network commitments", "implementation_status": "Agreement publicly announced; original signed document not obtained", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Community priorities and precise obligations cannot be derived solely from announcement", "source_url": "https://www.wafa.ps/pages/details/10518", "document_tier": "A / contemporaneous Palestinian report" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-08", "year": "2022-08 to 2022-09", "geography": "Hebron / Al-Hileh", "actor_or_sponsor": "PWA; Palestinian Ministry of Finance; project donors", "counterparty": "Local community and treatment-plant contractors", "mechanism": "Community protest, work interruption and renegotiation", "observed_evidence": "World Bank Annex 7 reports works stopped 20 Aug 2022 after unfulfilled commitments; revised PWA assurances; resumed 17 Sep 2022", "implementation_status": "Response and restart documented in independent-institution retrospective report", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Signed 2022 agreement, contractor logs and counteraccounts not obtained", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B / project evaluator report" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-09", "year": "2023-12", "geography": "Hebron", "actor_or_sponsor": "World Bank/AFD and Palestinian implementing bodies", "counterparty": "Local communities and wastewater network users", "mechanism": "End of evaluation-period outcome", "observed_evidence": "Project closed at 80 percent construction and not operational; Bank own performance rated unsatisfactory", "implementation_status": "Outcome at closure reported, later construction supported by AFD", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Not evidence project would never be completed or that single actor caused failure", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "A / published completion report" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-08", "year": "2022-05", "geography": "Northern Gaza", "actor_or_sponsor": "German KfW and Dorsch International Consultants", "counterparty": "PWA and Universal Group Engineering (Gaza)", "mechanism": "Consultancy contract award and local subcontract", "observed_evidence": "GTAI names Dorsch successful tenderer; Universal Group local subcontractor; basic net 1,443,020.54 EUR, optional 2,091,966.47 EUR", "implementation_status": "Award documented; May 2022 start and 60-month planned term", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Contract performance, actual payments, permit influence or award-related improper conduct not established", "source_url": "https://www.gtai.de/en/trade/palestinian-territories/tenders/consulting-services-water-supply-infrastructure-595134", "document_tier": "A / official German trade tender award" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-09", "year": "2022-08 to 2023-09", "geography": "Gaza central desalination plant", "actor_or_sponsor": "PWA; IsDB; EU; bidders; other financiers", "counterparty": "Residents and future utility operators", "mechanism": "Main-plant procurement cancellation and funding gap", "observed_evidence": "Quartet 2022 and 2023 reports attribute plant hold to procurement failure and financing rather than material-entry review alone", "implementation_status": "Procurement failure and hold stated by independent mediator reports", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot quantify contribution of Israeli entry approvals to halted main-plant tender", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/Office%20of%20the%20Quartet%20Report%20to%20the%20AHLC%20-%20September%202022.pdf", "document_tier": "A / formal Quartet institutional report" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-10", "year": "2023-08-09 to 2023-09", "geography": "Gaza Associated Works / Middle Area", "actor_or_sponsor": "COGAT; PWA; World Bank; EU; Office of Quartet", "counterparty": "Contractors and residents", "mechanism": "Approval coordination response to reported material delays", "observed_evidence": "Quartet reports task force met 9 Aug 2023 and agreed further arrangements, asks for pending pipes and telecom materials clearance", "implementation_status": "Reported request problems and task-force response; project package distinguishable from main plant", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "No application-level submission/reply/entry dates to calculate 60/45-day compliance or causal share of delays", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/flash/Office%20of%20the%20Quartet%20Report%20to%20the%20AHLC%20-%20Sep%202023_Final.pdf", "document_tier": "A / formal Quartet institutional report" }, { "episode_id": "HEB-15", "year": "2018–2020", "geography": "Hebron, West Bank", "actor_or_sponsor": "French Development Agency (AFD)", "counterparty": "Palestinian Water Authority; nearby Palestinian communities", "mechanism": "Donor safeguards suspension", "observed_evidence": "World Bank ICR reports AFD suspended Hebron works for 416 days in response to community environmental and livelihood complaints", "implementation_status": "Suspension duration documented in retrospective official report", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not prove suspension served geopolitical interests or identify all original notices", "source_url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099051425064539147/pdf/BOSIB-f45ea8de-2059-4cdc-9848-0506d52aabdc.pdf", "document_tier": "B / retrospective World Bank record" }, { "episode_id": "GAZ-11", "year": "2023-09", "geography": "Middle Gaza Strip", "actor_or_sponsor": "COGAT/Israeli authorities; PWA; World Bank", "counterparty": "W0-2 water distribution works", "mechanism": "Pending material clearance with revised completion", "observed_evidence": "Office of Quartet records stainless-steel pipes awaiting Israeli government approval; W0-2 75% complete and new date 1 December 2023 versus 18 May", "implementation_status": "Reported material-entry delay and revised forecast", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot calculate application-level delay or attribute all project delay to this consignment", "source_url": "https://www.quartetoffice.org/files/Office%20of%20the%20Quartet%20Report%20to%20the%20AHLC%20-%20Sep%202023.pdf", "document_tier": "A / Quartet report" }, { "episode_id": "PRO-03", "year": "2023-11-16", "geography": "Amman, Jordan", "actor_or_sponsor": "Jordanian foreign ministry", "counterparty": "Israel; UAE; prospective investors", "mechanism": "Rejection of proposed interstate water-energy agreement", "observed_evidence": "Jordan foreign minister stated Jordan would not sign planned water-for-energy agreement with Israel during Gaza war", "implementation_status": "Observable decision by Jordan not to sign contemplated agreement", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not establish long-term project termination, effect on desalination investments or unanimous Jordanian positions", "source_url": "https://www.mfa.gov.jo/news/87314", "document_tier": "A / national foreign ministry statement" }, { "episode_id": "PRO-04", "year": "2017", "geography": "Jordan, Israel and Palestine", "actor_or_sponsor": "EcoPeace Middle East; Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung", "counterparty": "Palestinian, Jordanian, Israeli policy researchers", "mechanism": "Pre-feasibility design with Palestinian participation", "observed_evidence": "2017 report considered Palestinian and/or Israeli desalination and Jordanian renewables", "implementation_status": "Published feasibility study; not yet government agreement", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Cannot establish the Palestinian omission from 2021 governmental declaration was caused by any single actor", "source_url": "https://www.kas.de/en/web/palaestinensische-gebiete/single-title/-/content/machbarkeitssudie-fuer-einen-regionalen-wasser-energie-nexus", "document_tier": "A / original published report" }, { "episode_id": "PRO-05", "year": "2024-11-01", "geography": "Jordan/Israel/Palestine", "actor_or_sponsor": "Journalist Peter Schwartzstein reporting interview accounts", "counterparty": "Negotiators; EcoPeace; officials", "mechanism": "Attributed route and participation negotiation", "observed_evidence": "Wilson Center interviews report political objections to possible route via West Bank and Jordanian insistence on desalinated-only water", "implementation_status": "Detailed interview-based reporting, not original governmental engineering plan", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not authenticate final route modifications or document negotiating directives", "source_url": "https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/rise-fall-and-possible-rise-again-middle-easts-most-ambitious-environment-scheme", "document_tier": "C / investigative interviews" }, { "episode_id": "WPS-03", "year": "2025-06", "geography": "Iraq", "actor_or_sponsor": "The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies / WPS", "counterparty": "Unnamed Iraqi civil-society collaborator", "mechanism": "Reported alteration of advocacy mode", "observed_evidence": "Independent evaluation reports HCSS expected local collaborator to temper activism to maintain programme neutrality and says collaborator agreed", "implementation_status": "Organisational practice reported by evaluators", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Does not establish diminished substantive autonomy or identify the local collaborator conclusively", "source_url": "https://www.government.nl/documents/2025/06/20/evaluation-of-the-water-peace-security-wps-partnership", "document_tier": "B / external evaluation" }, { "episode_id": "WPS-04", "year": "2025-05-27", "geography": "Baghdad, Iraq", "actor_or_sponsor": "WPS partners / HCSS / Deltares", "counterparty": "Iraqi ministries and universities", "mechanism": "Research-to-policy engagement", "observed_evidence": "WPS Baghdad symposium brought policy makers and universities into discussions of models and water-security tools", "implementation_status": "Attendance, demonstrations and policy discussions documented", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "No formal national policy adoption or defence use demonstrated", "source_url": "https://hcss.nl/news/water-peace-and-security-symposium-baghdad-iraq-27-may-2025/", "document_tier": "B / organiser event report" }, { "episode_id": "WPS-05", "year": "2025-06", "geography": "Netherlands, Iraq and other programme countries", "actor_or_sponsor": "Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs; WPS evaluators", "counterparty": "Consortium partners and potential security users", "mechanism": "Proposed future institutionalisation and 4D integration", "observed_evidence": "Evaluation recommends a future model connecting forecasting, embassy diplomacy and possible defence/security uses", "implementation_status": "Evaluative recommendations; not all adopted or funded", "what_cannot_be_inferred": "Not evidence of coordinated intervention or security-sector operational use in Iraq", "source_url": "https://www.government.nl/documents/2025/06/20/evaluation-of-the-water-peace-security-wps-partnership", "document_tier": "A / evaluation document" } ]